Chuck on the right side
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To listen to the Democrats and their lackey's in the media, the Democrats by being close in the various elections around the country, is an omen for their success in the coming mid-term elections in November. Is their optimism warranted or is it just wishful thinking?
As most every pundit knows, the “out” party usually wins the most seats in an off-year election, but is this year any different than previous elections? Since Pres. Trump took office, out of 10 special elections, the Republicans have won 8.
This year is unusual in so far as Republicans are defending more open seats in the House, through retirements, than the Democrats. That's important because the incumbent usually wins in about 90% of the elections, but an open seat is generally considered more competitive
where incumbency gives the edge to the incumbent. That's why Democrats are more optimistic in gaining House seats this coming mid-term election.
In the Senate, the opposite is true. Of the 33 seats up for election in November, the Democrats have 24 seats to hold onto, the Republicans have to hold 9. Of those 24 Democrat seats, 10 are in states won by Donald Trump in 2016. Republicans are only defending one seat in a state won by Hillary Clinton in 2016. The pundits have predicted that Republicans should be able to increase their Senate majority by a least 3 or 4, depending on the political climate or atmosphere prevailing at election time.
The “big elephant” in the room is Pres. Trump. The Democrats are almost universally against Pres. Trump, policy-wise and personality-wise. They are insanely motivated to use him as as their motivating factor in voting against him by voting against the Republican candidate. But, Pres. Trump says that he will bring his political clout to those House and Senate seats where he racked up a sizable majority in 2016. He has the ability to mobilize his base voters and those working-class voters who came out to vote for him in 2016, which is important in an off-year election. I'd suggest that the pundits and the Democrats not underestimate the attractiveness of an energized Pres. Trump on the stump. He has the uncanny ability to attract huge crowds to his rallies which motivates those people in attendance to go out to vote for the people he wants elected to help him carry out his program.
As of now, it looks like the Democrats will win more House seats, but will fall short of getting a majority, while in the Senate, the Republicans will gain the 3 or 4 seats mentioned before.
The Republicans are banking on the very strong economy and the desire to stem the flow of illegal aliens, and Trump's foreign policy initiatives to motivate people to vote for the Republican candidates.
So, in conclusion, many of House and Senate seats will be close contests, and the optimism of the Democrats by being close in the recent special elections, points up the fact that being close only counts in horseshoes and grenades, it will not carry the day.
Conservative commentary by Chuck Lehmann
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